The Hyperion Chronicles

the Hyperion Chronicles
“A cross between a bishop and a bull fighter”

#281 You too can win your Office Pool

There are many great betting traditions in America. There are sporting events, such as the Super Bowl and March Madness. Then there is the political, like “Who will be president?” and “Which Senator will be indicted first?” Finally, there is the Celebrity voyeur kind, as in, “Will he be convicted?” and “Will she serve time?”

All three of these, however, the sporting, the political, and the celebrity, are wrapped up into one big night, the 76^th Annual Academy Awards, or what I like to call, the Oscars.

So, in an effort to help out you, my beloved Hyperion Nation (no matter how much readers in Arizona don’t appreciate it), I have been pouring over Oscar-material the last two months to bring you this week’s columns, so that you can bring home a little extra cash come next Monday morning. No thanks are needed, but like any good agent, I do expect 15%.

Today we’re going to take a brief look at every category except Best Picture (which we’ll cover Wednesday). Friday we’ll have a list of Overlooked movies, in case you want to impress your party guests with your knowledge of arcane movie goodness. The process I used to come up with these picks is partly scouring the printed word on the “buzz” of certain categories. Partly it was looking at Vegas’s odds, and mostly, by seeing as many of these films myself as possible, which took an incredible amount of time, energy, and money. (For a full list of this year’s nominees, go here.) The way this will work is that I will list each category, and which film you should bet on. If I have a different “personal” choice, I’ll put that too.

The Techie Section
These are considered the “smaller” awards, given earlier in the evening, but can oftentimes predict how well a big movie will do. The two big nominees are Master and Commander and Return of the King. If Return of the King starts winning all the small awards (which I think they well might), look out for a big night from them.

SOUND EDITING
FINDING NEMO
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL

This one is a complete toss-up, one of the hardest to predict. The reason there are only three nominees (instead of the traditional five) is that there are technical requirements to being nominated. They may give it to Pirates, but I suspect that because Master and Commander is nominated in so many categories with Return of the King (hereafter known at ROTK), they may give them this one, and I’d bet that way.

SOUND MIXING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
SEABISCUIT

I’d look for ROTK to sweep these minor categories. If you want to go against the grain, Seabiscuit might get one here. Again, look for what is winning these early ones. That can be a big indicator of how the night will go.

VISUAL EFFECTS
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL

This should be a slam-dunk, for ROTK. Think about the level of sophistication in the visual effects for that movie compared to the other nominees (or for that matter, any movie ever made).

FILM EDITING
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

This is actually a big one, to movie insiders, and so we could see a surprise. However, I wouldn’t bet against ROTK. Having seen all five films, though, I would give this award to City of God, hands down.

The In-Between Section
These categories don’t fit into traditional labels, and sometimes are the hardest to predict. Do well on them, though, and you’re on your way to securing the most wins overall of anyone in your pool.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BALSEROS
CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS
THE FOG OF WAR
MY ARCHITECT
THE WEATHER UNDERGROUND

I’ve seen three of these, and they are uniformly excellent. The two docs getting the most “buzz” are Capturing the Friedmans and The Fog of War. Both are excellent, but I’d give the nod to The Fog of War, because Director Errol Morris has been overlooked in the past (for the fantastic The Thin Blue Line and A Brief History of Time), and Oscar voters are famous for makeup calls.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
ASYLUM
CHERNOBYL HEART
FERRY TALES

This is one of three categories I know virtually nothing about. Ferry Tales is about women putting on makeup on the Staten Island Ferry each morning. The other two are heart-tuggers, but I’m guessing Asylum, because it criticizes the Bush Administration’s I.N.S. policy, and you know how those Hollywood types love to bash Republicans.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BOUNDIN'
DESTINO
GONE NUTTY
HARVIE KRUMPET
NIBBLES

Another category where I know next-to-nothing. Harvie Krumpet is about a depressed guy, so I won’t pick that on principle. Nibbles is about Canada, so you know that’s out. I’m tempted to pick Boundin’, because it has one of Hyperion’s favorite creatures in it, a jackalope. However, I think it will come down to Destino, which animates the world of Surrealist Salvador Dali (I’d like to see that), and Gone Nutty, which features that crazy squirrel-rat from the animated movie Ice Age. Just a guess, but I think the Gone Nutty will take it.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
DIE ROTE JACKE (The Red Jacket)
MOST (The Bridge)
SQUASH
(A) TORZIJA ([A] Torsion)
TWO SOLDIERS

I have no clue. I’m hoping the German film Die Rote Jacke wins, just so I can hear the announcers stumble over pronouncing it. However, I’m betting on Two Soldiers, which is based on a William Faulkner short story, because you know how celebrities like to think they are literary.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
BROTHER BEAR
FINDING NEMO
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE

The movie geek will try to say that Triplets of Belleville is the hip edgy choice, which it may be, but you can bet the baby shoe money that this one will be Finding Nemo.

The Artsy-Fartsy Section
These categories are the ones women generally care the most about (to make a sexist stereotype). They are sometimes easier to predict.

COSTUME DESIGN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

Oddly, this category predicts the Best Picture winner better than any other one (except maybe Director). With that in mind, ROTK all the way, baby.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
EVIL
THE TWILIGHT SAMURAI
TWIN SISTERS
ŽELARY

Why City of God wasn’t at least nominated in this category is a travesty. However, of the ones left, The Barbarian Invasions is the best known. If there is a spoiler, it might be Evil.

MAKEUP
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL

This is historically a weird category, and sometimes they give it to a smaller film. But since all of these are big movies, I’m going with my theme of the evening, ROTK. I am, though, uneasy with that. I’m tempted to take Pirates.

MUSIC (SCORE)
BIG FISH
COLD MOUNTAIN
FINDING NEMO
HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

ROTK. This should be a slam dunk. The only thing that scares me is that Fellowship of the Ring won two years ago, and it’s essentially the same music. Cold Mountain could be a sleeper here.

MUSIC (SONG)
"Belleville Rendez-vous" - THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
"Into the West" - THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
"A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" - A MIGHTY WIND
"Scarlet Tide" - COLD MOUNTAIN
"You Will Be My Ain True Love" - COLD MOUNTAIN

This is one category that is truly independent, and I might bet against ROTK on this one. But who to bet on? There is no real big song here (like last year’s “Lose Yourself”), and not one of the songs is integral to the movie it’s in, (except perhaps Triplets). I’m going for the shocker here and saying “A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow.” If you don’t like that, go for “You Will be My Ain True Love,” because it’s by Sting, and Academy voters love to give this award to big names. If “Into the West” wins, you can be sure ROTK is winning everything.

ART DIRECTION
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

Another tricky category. ROTK is again the favorite, but odds are they won’t win everything. Pearl Earring might be too small for enough people to have seen it. That leaves Last Samurai or Master and Commander if you want a spoiler.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

I would give this to City of God, and something tells me that voters might too. However, the safe bet is with our Hobbit friends.

The Big Name Section
These are the most known categories, and with one exception (usually Best Supporting Actress or Actor, right at the beginning), the ones you’ll have to wait until the very end for. Fairly or not, these are the “biggies.”

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT

ROTK is the big favorite here. Actually, any of these (except Seabiscuit) would make me happy. This could go to Mystic River, otherwise stick with the King.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
DIRTY PRETTY THINGS
FINDING NEMO
IN AMERICA
LOST IN TRANSLATION

This is the most wide-open category, with no ring to rule them all. I suppose Finding Nemo has an outside shot, but most likely this will go to In America or Lost in Translation. My guess is Lost will be found here.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Shohreh Aghdashloo - HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Patricia Clarkson - PIECES OF APRIL
Marcia Gay Harden - MYSTIC RIVER
Holly Hunter - THIRTEEN
Renée Zellweger - COLD MOUNTAIN

I managed to see three of these personally, and heard reports on the other two. From what I saw, I would give the nod to Marcia Gay Harden over Holly Hunter. However, Renée Zellweger is the overwhelming favorite (Vegas has her at 1/5). This is her third nomination, and that alone could give her the victory. Often this category is a surprise, but not this time.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alec Baldwin - THE COOLER
Benicio Del Toro - 21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou - IN AMERICA
Tim Robbins - MYSTIC RIVER
Ken Watanabe - THE LAST SAMURAI

Ashamedly, as hard as I tried, I only managed to see two of these films. However, predicting the winner shouldn’t be that hard. Del Toro won three years ago, and for Hounsou and Watanabe, the honor is getting nominated. That leaves a two man race between Alec Baldwin and Tim Robbins. Both are respected actors and for both these are their first nominations. Robbins has won most of the major awards leading up to Oscar, and that would be my vote, but don’t be surprised if Baldwin steals it.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Keisha Castle-Hughes - WHALE RIDER
Diane Keaton - SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE
Samantha Morton - IN AMERICA
Charlize Theron - MONSTER
Naomi Watts - 21 GRAMS

I only saw two of these, but I saw the important one. Charlize Theron has become the biggest lock (outside of Finding Nemo in the animated category) in the whole ceremony. She will win, and you can take that to the bank.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Johnny Depp - PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Ben Kingsley - HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Jude Law - COLD MOUNTAIN
Bill Murray - LOST IN TRANSLATION
Sean Penn - MYSTIC RIVER

This is the only real contest in the acting categories. From the start it’s been a two man race (although Johnny Depp’s win last night at the S.A.G. Awards put a monkey wrench in things) between Bill Murray and Sean Penn. Either one would be fine with me, although I personally would give Paul Giamatti in American Splendor the award if I was in charge. As to who will actually win, it’s virtually even. Vegas lists Penn as an 8/13 favorite, but Murray right behind at 5/4. I am guessing Penn, only because it’s the more showy role, and because he’s been nominated several times before, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

DIRECTING
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER

Regardless of who wins Best Picture, Peter Jackson will win Best Director. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t. If for no other reason, he wasn’t even nominated last year for Two Towers, and didn’t win two years ago for Fellowship of the Ring. The only possible spoiler is Clint Eastwood for Mystic River, but his win for Unforgiven 11 years ago means this award will go to the Kiwi (that means New Zealander for those of you from Newfoundland).

Join me Wednesday, when we’ll take a closer look at the five Best Picture nominees, and ask the very important question, “Who’s Precious really is it?”

Until then,

Hyperion
February 23, 2004

Credits
Thanks to Ajax
Thanks to Koz
Thanks to Coco Chanel
Thanks to Kimbo and Tootsie
Thanks to Zach, Marcellus, Jerrica, Elby, Aslan, Quincy, Bear, Achmed, and anyone else I saw all these movies with

Motto Explanation
There’s an episode of M*A*S*H where the camp is haunted and they bring in a shaman to exorcise the spirits. Upon seeing her garish outfit and her strange dance to rid the hospital of evil, Father Mulcahy remarks that the shaman looks like, “a cross between a bishop and a bullfighter.”